The downside was that New Hampshire’s net domestic migration (migration between states) was -2,763 which likely reflects the lingering woes in the housing market, especially in Massachusetts where much of New Hampshire’s in-migration has historically come from. That decline was partially mitigated by an influx of 1,165 international migrants.

Overall, despite the aging demographics in New Hampshire, it is encouraging to see a healthy positive number in the net natural change column. Still, New Hampshire net natural increase (as a percent of population) is about half the national average so there is still some work to do in terms of keeping and attracting  young families to the Granite State. If only right-to-work had passed . . .

The chart below shows the net migration in New Hampshire of taxpayers (a good proxy for households), exemptions (a good proxy for people) and adjusted gross income (a good proxy for household income).

Since 2006, both households and people are showing net out-migration.  For the first time over the 1995 to 2009 time-period, income has gone negative as well. This net out-migration will create headwinds for the New Hampshire economy.

However, it is interesting to note that this net out-migration trend is not being driven by more households leaving New Hampshire. In fact, the number of out-migrant households has dropped since 2006.

Rather, the number of in-migrating households has dramatically declined. From 1995 to 2005, the average number of in-migrating households was 22,905.  From 2006 to 2009, the average number of in-migrating households was 19,311–a decline of 3,594 households.

As such, this net out-migration data is less a reflection of New Hampshire’s economy as it is a reflection of the Massachusetts economy since the majority of New Hampshire’s in-migration has historically been from the Bay State.

More specifically, the state of the housing market. The Boston housing market was one of the first in the country to go into recession. Since fewer people were able to sell their homes, then there were fewer people capable of relocating to New Hampshire.

Still, there are too many people deciding to leave New Hampshire. As our previous research has shown, New Hampshire suffers from a persistent net out-migration of people to right-to-work states. With right-to-work, New  Hampshire could keep more of its own residents home.

So if you live in a district where  your Representative voted against the recent right-to-work veto over-ride, you may want to ask them what their plan is to keep New Hampshire residents from leaving for greener, right-to-work pastures.

Regulatory environment includes metrics influenced by the government. We factor in an index from Pollina Corporate Real Estate that measures tax incentives and the economic development efforts of each state. Other metrics include the Tort Liability Index from Pacific Research Foundation, as well as the regulatory component of PRI’s U.S. Economic Freedom Index. Other factors include Moody’s bond rating on the state’s general obligation debt and the transportation infrastructure including air, highway and rail. We also gave credit to those states that are right-to-work states. [emphasis added]

So it’s no surprise that 16 of the 26 states ahead of New Hampshire are all right-to-work states. Therefore, enacting right-to-work would signficantly improves New Hampshire’s ranking in the Forbes “Best States for Business.”

Oklahoma has experienced growth in the number of households, population and manufacturing GDP since the implementation of RTW in 2003.  Most of the in-migration of people and jobs has come at the expense of non-RTW states – proving that no matter what is happening in the national economy, there are positive steps available for individual states to strengthen their own economies and job growth.

NHCEP policy experts commented on their findings, in context of New Hampshire’s current opportunity to adopt Right-to-Work laws:

“During a time when people are concerned about America’s economy, it’s very exciting to be able to illustrate that there are things an individual state can do on its own behalf,” noted NHCEP president J. Scott Moody.  “Oklahoma is the most recent state to adopt Right-to-Work, and the Sooners are booming.”

Moody continued:“If New Hampshire would move in the same direction, and adopt Right-to-Work, I predict the results would be even more positive because we already have the advantages of the largest private sector in the country, as well as no sales or income taxes. Plus, the closest competing Right-to-Work state is Virginia – so why would any company in the Northeast move anywhere but New Hampshire?”

“The best part about choosing Right-to-Work now is that it’s a proven policy that will not cost the state treasury any short-term lost revenues,” adds Chief Economist Wendy Warcholik.”In fact, this policy will strengthen the state’s finances by helping New Hampshire companies become more competitive and add workers. It will also make New Hampshire even more attractive for new business start-ups and for established companies to relocate here.”

“Another way of looking at New Hampshire’s current situation regarding Right-to-Work is to see the Tenth Amendment in action,” concluded Mr. Moody.  “Individual states are free to experiment with policies within their own borders, with the luxury of seeing what works in other states and what doesn’t work.  We hope that New Hampshire’s leaders take this opportunity to review the positive results from Oklahoma’s decision on Right-to-Work and make it happen here too.”

To read the NHCEP report detailing Oklahoma’s experiences with Right-to-Work, please click this link: http://nheconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/NHCEP-Liberty-in-Economics-Volume-1-Issue-4-Right-to-Work-110311.pdf

Mr. J. Scott Moody and Dr. Wendy Warcholik are available for press interviews, on-air appearances and in-person presentations of this research.  If you have any questions or would like to arrange a meeting, please contact Scott Moody via e-mail at scottmoody@nheconomics.org or by calling 603-277-0255.

First, overall population in New Hampshire, as shown in the first chart below, has stalled out since 2008. Also shown in the first chart is the median age which is soaring. In 2000 the median age was 37.2 years but has increased by 11 percent to 41.1 years in 2010.

Second, the composition of New Hampshire’s population by age cohort, as shown in the second chart below, shows shrinking numbers of  young people and growing numbers of retired people.

Between 2000 and 2010, the number of people under the age of 18 dropped by 8 percent to 286,836 from 310,390. This is somewhat misleading since the drop is actually greater because the drop did not begin  until 2002 when the under 18 population peaked at 312,719.

At the same time, the number of people over the age of 65 increased by 20 percent to 178,625 from 148,468.

Overall, this is a very disturbing picture of New Hampshire’s demographics. Without strong in-migration from other states, New Hampshire’s future workforce will be smaller and older which will create formidable headwinds in the effort to generate sustainable economic growth.

For reasons of tax policy, we oppose the New Hampshire estate tax proposed in Senate Bill 450.

If adopted, the proposed statute would impose an 8 percent tax on all estates over $2 million passing to anyone other than a spouse. But the adoption of an estate tax will not provide a net benefit to the state.

The proposed tax will affect only the very wealthy who live here or who have property here. These individuals usually can choose where they live, and they can decide whether they want to maintain expensive properties in New Hampshire.

Many of the affluent clients we advise have homes in Florida or other warm-weather states (including California, Arizona and South Carolina) that have no estate tax. Our clients with homes in Florida often ask whether they should be New Hampshire residents or Florida residents. When the estate tax is a neutral issue (meaning neither state has such a tax), New Hampshire and Florida are more or less equal. Not surprisingly, our clients with New Hampshire connections tend to remain New Hampshire residents or to retain residential property here because they are not concerned that it will be exposed to taxation when they die.

The other New England states all have estate taxes. Many people choose New Hampshireas their state of residence rather than one of our neighboring states (notablyMassachusetts) because of the absence of an estate tax. Often, these are retirees who would not otherwise be here. Accordingly, we are concerned that if we adopt the proposed estate tax, New Hampshire will lose its favorable position as a place that does not penalize its wealthy property owners when they die. This could cause people who can conveniently do so to move their state of residence to Florida or elsewhere – or cause others not to move to New Hampshire in the first place.

Here are folks who are in the trenches telling us that “taxes matter” in relocation decisions.

However, New Hampshire can’t sit still. The state government still has plenty of work to do, especially by enacting right-to-work and reforming the pension system.

Note that the private sector is significantly higher than last reported for the first quarter, 2011. The reason is due to the Orwellian American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). According to new BEA revisions, “net” ARRA payments are lower than reported previously because “some ARRA funding, such as for Medicaid, replaced state funding and had no net effect on personal current transfer receipts.” As a result, the rebound in the private sector is better than previously reported.

As such, Chart 2 shows that, in the second quarter of 2011, the modified ARRA calculations show that $99 million was pumped into New Hampshire’s economy via personal current transfer receipts (pdf).  This is down from the peak spending ($303 million) under ARRA in the second quarter of 2009.  As ARRA spending continues to wind-down, this will continue to help New Hampshire’s private sector rebound from its all-time lows though it puts a drag on overall personal income growth.