New Hampshire’s Private Sector . . . 1st Quarter, 2011

Today the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released new personal income data for the first quarter of 2011 by state (pdf) and revisions for the past couple of years.  As shown in Chart 1, New Hampshire’s private sector share of personal income for the first quarter of 2011 was at  75.7 percent–or 9.3 percent larger than the national average.  While this is the highest point since the third quarter of 2009, the private sector has essentially been moving sideways.

Chart 2 shows the major culprit behind this crowding-out of the private sector since the beginning of the “Great Recession”–the Orwellian American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).  In the first quarter of 2011, the ARRA pumped $103 million into New Hampshire’s economy via personal current transfer receipts (pdf).  This is down from the peak spending ($345 million) under ARRA in the second quarter of 2009.  As ARRA spending continues to wind-down, this will help New Hampshire’s private sector rebound from its all-time lows though it puts a drag on overall personal income growth.

New Hampshire’s Private Sector . . . 2nd Quarter 2010

Today the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released new personal income data for the second quarter of 2010 and revisions for the past couple of years.  This new data brings a mixed-bag of new about New Hampshire’s private sector.  As shown in Chart 1, New Hampshire’s private sector share of personal income for the second quarter of 2010 was at a new all-time low of 75.18 percent–just edging out the previous low of 75.29 percent set in the last first quarter of 2010.

The good news is that the private sector change between the first and second quarters was a minuscule 0.1 percentage points which suggests that perhaps the dramatic drop in the private sector has at least found bottom.  Additionally, New Hampshire’s private sector gained ground against the national average.  In the first quarter of 2010, New Hampshire’s private sector was 9.71 percent larger than the national average but has climbed to 9.76 percent above the national average in the second quarter.

The major culprit behind this crowding-out of the private sector–the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).  In the second quarter of 2010, the ARRA pumped $138 million into New Hampshire’s economy via personal current transfer receipts.  This is down from the peak spending ($345 million) under ARRA in the second quarter of 2009.  As ARRA spending continues to wind-down, New Hampshire’s private sector should rebound from its all-time lows.

However, it remains an open question as to how much of the private sector will be permanently lost.  For example, some of the temporary spending under ARRA will simply be transferred to state and local governments for funding resulting in higher state and local taxes.